Thursday, 9 June 2011

Sliding down hubbert's peak

Big news upon waking this morning is this Gulf of Mexico oil discovery.

"This is one of the largest discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico in the last decade," Steve Greenlee, president of ExxonMobil Exploration Company

So that should be enough to make the US a self-sufficient oil producer for the next ten years? No, 700 million barrels of oil equates to a month of consumption in America. Just ten days of world oil consumption at current rates.


The above graph shows just how much this new discovery contributes to the energy mix in the coming decades. Specifically the green Line. Note that the crude price needs to stay above $90/barrel to bring these kinds of deep water discoveries to market.

The graph, in my opinion, is highly optimistic. Any growth in energy production hinges on the light blue and red areas. These are estimated future reserve figures given by OPEC countries, who are quite secretive. We also rely on numbers that plucked from thin air (red) called "Fields yet to be found". How can anyone quantify a contribution by oil fields that haven't been found yet!

Australia is well placed to supply natural gas to an energy hungry economy, but this too requires energy intensive processes in order to ship to far off markets. But switching energy intensive economic activities from oil to natural gas power is a long way off.

The writing is on the wall for anyone who looks at this subject deeply enough.

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